As the Christmas holiday approaches, global markets are churning with undercurrents. On the surface, there is a joyful and harmonious festive atmosphere, but in reality, a liquidity crisis is brewing.

U.S. stocks are about to enter holiday mode next week—with an early close on Wednesday and a full market closure on Thursday. It doesn't seem like a big deal, but the problem is: when traders go on vacation, the market's defenses also weaken. Any negative news can be amplified infinitely under extremely thin buying support, potentially triggering a flash crash.

But what is truly fatal is not the silence of Wall Street, but the speech that took place in Tokyo.

Ueda Kazuo will deliver a heavyweight speech next Thursday. This timing is particularly sensitive – Japan has just bid farewell to the era of negative interest rates, and the foundation for global arbitrage trading has already been shaken. Traders are now pondering the same question: what will he say next?

If he signals a hawkish stance, suggesting further interest rate hikes, the funds borrowed in yen globally will accelerate their exit. This is equivalent to draining blood from the risk asset market, affecting both US stocks and cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if his attitude is mild, the market may catch a breath, but during the thin liquidity of the holiday season, any rebound could be a paper tiger.

This is the most critical and also the most dangerous stage of the final sprint in 2023. In a word, it could change the direction of the market.

There is another variable: Will Trump announce the nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chairman during the Christmas period? The market is paying close attention. Currently, candidates like Kevin Hassett are under discussion. This decision can also greatly influence the nerves of the global financial market.