#大户持仓动态 Gold started to adjust after reaching a high last week, and the opportunity for short-term shorting has arrived.

Market fluctuations are just as normal as the changing seasons and the rise and fall of ocean tides; the imperfections of the market are precisely where opportunities lie—accumulate strength during the lows and stay alert during the highs.

Last trading week, we precisely positioned long positions around 4310, and gold performed strongly, eventually surging to a high of 4372, securing a profit of 62 points. However, the situation has changed now, with both the funding and technical aspects signaling bearish trends.

From a fundamental perspective, the US economic data has suddenly improved, giving the dollar index a rebound momentum. This directly affects gold—its appeal priced in dollars has decreased, and funds are starting to shift from the precious metals market to dollar assets. With the Christmas holidays approaching, major institutions are on vacation, and trading activity has noticeably declined. Bulls are eager to secure profits, and their strength to chase the market is weakening. All of these factors are creating conditions for a bearish market.

Looking at the technical aspects of the 1-hour chart, the bearish signs are already very clear. After a quick surge in gold prices, there was a rapid pullback, clearly indicating a high point. The previous upper Bollinger Band at 4361 was only a temporary breakthrough before it fell back, indicating that the bulls have lost strength at high levels. The previous high point of 4374 has become a strong resistance, and despite several attempts, it has not broken through, with a "double top" formation taking shape. The 1-hour candlestick has formed a long upper shadow, indicating that selling pressure above is indeed very heavy. Now that gold prices have returned to the Bollinger Band range, the middle band at 4336 has become a key support point—if it breaks below here, the downside potential will open up.

short-term trading strategy

Shorting entry position:
- Shorting in the range of 4370-4375.
- If it rebounds to 4380-4385, you can continue to add shorting positions.

Profit target:
- In the first phase, look at 4335-4340
- If it continues to break below support, then look down to the range of 4320-4325.

The core logic is: high positions create resistance, the dollar rebound diverts funds, institutions take holidays reducing activity, and the bullish momentum is completely consumed. Both technical and fundamental aspects point to shorting, and the short-term opportunity lies here.