The Dilemma of Federal Reserve Independence: The Covert Battle Between Policymakers and the Market Intensifies

Recently, there has been a heated debate in the United States regarding the direction of monetary policy. The selection of the new chair of the Federal Reserve has become the focal point, and the attitudes of political figures towards interest rate policy directly affect the expectations of the entire financial market.

The current benchmark interest rate remains in the range of 3.5%-3.75%, but there are voices in the market calling for a significant rate cut—targeting a reduction of the rate to 1%. This target, previously regarded as an "emergency measure" at "crisis levels", has now been put on the agenda.

The positions of the three main candidates are worth noting: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Walsh, and Chris Waller all support a direction towards interest rate cuts, but their attitudes vary. Waller recently stated that there is still room for a 50-100 basis point adjustment, but emphasized the need for a "gradual and steady" approach while maintaining policy independence; Hassett claimed he would listen to various opinions but remain independent when voting; Walsh also did not commit to an extreme interest rate cut plan.

This reflects a deeper issue: Traditionally, the president and the Federal Reserve maintain distance to uphold policy independence, but this rule seems to be breaking down. Policymakers openly state that they should be "listened to", which undoubtedly changes the rules of the game for monetary policy.

The market chain reaction is fermenting. If interest rates do indeed decline significantly, the cost of mortgages will drop substantially, and the real estate, stock, and cryptocurrency markets will welcome a liquidity-rich environment.

What does this mean for the crypto market? Bitcoin hovers around $90,000, but once the liquidity environment fundamentally changes, the technical pressure could quickly collapse. #以太坊行情解读 's attack on $100,000 and $120,000 is no longer a dream. Mainstream assets like $BTC and $ETH will also benefit from the easing expectations.

The interest rate cut cycle in 2026 is unlikely to be mild. If policy independence is weakened, the market may face unprecedented liquidity injections. Investors worried about a hard landing need to reassess risks — history may be speeding up its pages.