AAVE fell 10% today, and you might be struggling with whether to buy the dip. First, calm down, let's analyze the market data.

On-chain data just showed that a big whale sold 230,000 AAVE in 3 hours, equivalent to nearly 37 million USD in stablecoins. With this level of selling pressure, no market can withstand it, and a double-digit drop is basically inevitable. A bunch of retail investors followed suit and dumped, but then again, can you afford to dump?

On the technical front, the 4-hour chart has already broken through the key defense line of 154, and the overall trend is downward. Looking upwards, around 195 is the first resistance that a rebound will encounter, and further up at 234 the pressure is even stronger, making a direct breakthrough in the short term quite unlikely. The MACD double lines have formed a death cross below the zero axis, indicating that the bears still have strength. However, the RSI has entered the oversold zone, which is interesting—there may indeed be a rebound on the way, but be cautious, a rebound ≠ a reversal.

To be honest, I don't think this wave of fall has reached the bottom yet. If it rebounds to around 195, it is highly likely to be smashed down again. If it doesn't break through, it will continue to test the support at 118, and it may even drop to around 74. Blindly buying the dip now is not very wise; we should wait and see if there are clear technical signals. In a nutshell: don't follow the trend to guess the bottom, and don't treat rebounds as reversals.

For retail investors, if you hold a lot of coins, take the opportunity to gradually reduce your position near 195 during the rebound, don't be greedy; if you are in a short position or light position, there's no need to rush in, wait for a better entry point. Before the trend becomes clear, holding cash is more valuable than holding positions.