#数字资产市场洞察 market data review

The Nikkei opened high and rose today, and Bitcoin was also pulled up. However, the trend is a bit interesting — Bitcoin only had one large bullish candle, and there hasn't been any follow-up, which indicates what? The strength of the bulls is actually quite weak. From the current trend, the market has already entered a consolidation pattern.

Why is this happening? Funds are shifting. Gold and silver have set new historical highs today, and platinum is even more impressive, breaking the $2000 mark for the first time since 2008. Some retail and institutional funds are quietly flowing into the precious metals market, which will definitely create a diversion pressure on the crypto market.

Market sentiment is very extreme.

On the bullish side, there are notable figures holding firm: they believe BTC still has a chance to surge back to 100,000 USD, showing strong confidence. However, the bears are also not backing down—some large investors continue to add short positions on derivatives platforms, with individual positions exceeding 100 million USD. Their logic is that the market has fully entered a bear phase, and the potential for upward movement is very limited.

There are voices on both sides, and the market's divergence is indeed substantial.

How to view the technical aspects?

The slight adjustment this weekend has changed the structure of the market data. The previous downward channel trend line has been broken, but the upward momentum is weak. According to the rhythm of the previous two weeks, the basic logic should be weekend consolidation and a drop on Monday. Theoretically, a trend line breakout should see a real upward movement, but the problem is that the range-bound oscillation has lasted too long, increasing the probability of a false breakout. This morning's false breakout directly tested the patience of the bulls, making it easier to exacerbate the exhaustion of strength.

If BTC gives another opportunity to test around 840, I will decisively go long. The target for this bullish wave may oscillate around 930, which is still a decent space in the short term. Even if it really turns bearish in the future, it doesn't mean it will directly plunge to twenty or thirty thousand; there will definitely be a lot of volatility opportunities in between.

Intraday strategy framework

**Bitcoin**: Short near 89500-904, set a tight stop loss; gradually buy in the 855-844 range, with the same tight stop loss setting.

**Ethereum**: Short near 3060-3090, set a tight stop loss at 10-15 USD width, and a loose stop loss at 3120; for longs, it is important to hold the bottom, there is accumulation value near 2800.

To begin with, this strategy uses a left-side trading approach, which is relatively aggressive in logic. The strategy is for reference only, and specific entry points should also take into account real-time market data changes to find more suitable timing and signals.