The surface prosperity of the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data in November is losing its luster. The addition of 64,000 jobs seems to exceed expectations, but this number conceals an awkward truth - it is more of a remedial adjustment for the policy-induced unemployment in October than a real increase in employment. The Fed chairman openly admits that there is an overestimation of about 60,000 in the official data each month, and the actual employment growth rate may have sunk into negative growth.

The contradictions in the data have been laid out on the table. The official US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) statistics are in serious divergence with the ADP private sector data, the latter continuously showing a reduction in jobs. Even more disheartening is that although the U3 unemployment rate remains at 4.6%, the U6 indicator, which includes hidden unemployment, has surged to 8.7%, meaning millions of Americans have to rely on part-time work to make ends meet. Peeling away the candy coating of this data reveals the current state of the US job market: barely holding up, with a crisis brewing beneath the surface.

The Fed is caught in a classic dilemma. The data superficially supports the hawkish logic of maintaining high interest rates, but the rising unemployment rate and deteriorating employment structure force policy to shift towards easing. The market has already predicted a high probability of 89.4% for a rate cut in December.

This is rewriting the map of global asset allocation. The US dollar has hit a multi-year low, and a large amount of capital has initiated a large-scale transfer. The cryptocurrency market has been the first to react to this change — Bitcoin rebounded and broke through $87,000, while assets such as BNB and XRP also rose simultaneously. What's more interesting is that within minutes after each release of the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), the trading volume in the cryptocurrency market often surges by 200% to 300%, with volatility soaring to historic highs.

Against the backdrop of a slowing US economic growth and a depreciating dollar, funds are making choices through action. The question is, will the Fed's interest rate cuts truly ignite the next round of rises in the cryptocurrency market? Can assets like Bitcoin and BNB become safe-haven tools for global capital in uncertain times?