On December 21, the global prediction market released a significant signal: the probability of Hassett being the next Fed chair has risen to 56%, far exceeding Walsh's 22% and Waller's 12%. Behind this group of data is real money voting—billions of dollars in bets have already been placed.

What does this mean? In simple terms, the Fed's decision-making body may face significant changes. Hassett, known for his hawkish stance as a former economic advisor, is inclined towards tighter monetary policy. Once he takes the helm at the Fed, actions such as interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions are not hypothetical but rather high-probability events. When the dollar appreciation cycle arrives, high-risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum will be the first to bear the brunt.

History has shown us the lessons of the past. Last year, when the Fed merely adjusted its policy direction, Bitcoin experienced a 30% drop. This time, the probability exceeds 50%, and the market has already sensed something unusual. Liquidity is being withdrawn from the financial markets, and the first area to be impacted is the "high-risk, high-reward" territory of crypto assets. On-chain activity data has already begun to fluctuate, with an increase in large transfers, indicating that smart money is quietly reallocating.

How should retail investors respond? The key is to act quickly. The first step is to closely monitor official statements and policy developments, as each piece of news can trigger a chain reaction in the market. The second step is to gradually reduce high-leverage positions and accumulate stablecoin holdings before volatility intensifies. The third step is to be mentally prepared – a significant drop is not the end, but the eve of an opportunity. Professional institutions have already invested tens of millions of dollars on Polymarket, and if small retail investors are still waiting and watching, they are likely to miss the entire gaming cycle.

But here we need to pour some cold water: the market has never been certain. A 56% probability means there is still a 44% variability. The political situation may reverse, economic data may exceed expectations, and market sentiment may change suddenly. Therefore, rationality is worth more than panic. Staying clear-headed during a crash and not getting carried away during a rebound is the key to survival.

Monitor the flow of funds on the blockchain, observe the movements of large holders, and understand the logic of policies—if you master these basics, fluctuations can actually be opportunities for wealth redistribution. The crypto market always has opportunities; it just depends on whether you are ready.