The market seems lukewarm this week, with BTC hovering around 88000 USD. In a few days, we will enter the Christmas market, which is quite interesting at this point.

By looking at historical data, certain patterns can be found. The probability of the S&P 500 rising during the Christmas season is about 79%, with an average increase of around 1.3%. The largest increase recorded was 7.4% in one week. Of course, it hasn't always been so smooth; at its worst, it dropped by 4.2%.

The Christmas market actually reflects the psychology of the market. By the end of the year, there usually aren't any new policy stimuli. If investors are still willing to spend money on risk assets at this point, it indicates that they have a fairly optimistic outlook for next year. Once this optimistic sentiment stabilizes, it can pave the way for the market in the new year.

But on the contrary, if even the Christmas market couldn't hold up and is still falling, it indicates that market confidence has not truly recovered. In this case, entering January and possibly for a longer period afterward, the market is likely to be in a weak or fluctuating situation.

This week, there are still some key economic data to be released, such as the GDP growth rate and the PCE price index in the United States. The latter is an inflation metric that the Federal Reserve closely monitors, and these figures will directly impact the direction of future monetary policy, making them a focal point for the entire market.

From an on-chain perspective, the turnover rate of BTC has been declining recently, indicating that the real trading activity is not very high. As the Christmas holiday approaches, the trading volume and turnover rate are expected to continue to decline. However, interestingly, MicroStrategy's CEO Michael Saylor has released a Bitcoin tracker, suggesting that this big player is still accumulating. This has somewhat boosted the market's confidence.