Japanese investors holding $15 trillion in household assets are becoming a key variable in the global market for 2025. This large group of retail investors, which was once the most stable "buy and hold" force, is now facing the situation of being forced to Close Position.

The source of the matter is very clear. For more than a decade, these investors have relied on the near-zero interest rate borrowing costs of the yen, converted it into dollars, and invested in US stocks and bonds, easily earning on exchange rate differences and interest rate differentials. This strategy was so effective that even Buffett followed suit. But the good times have come to an end.

The Federal Reserve has begun to cut interest rates, while the Bank of Japan has raised rates to 0.75% for the first time in 30 years. The interest rate differential between the US and Japan is rapidly narrowing, and the once risk-free arbitrage trades have instantly become ineffective. Ongoing exchange rate fluctuations have caused many accounts to flash red. In order to repay yen loans, these investors have no choice but to sell off US stocks and bonds on a large scale, converting dollars back to yen.

The key point is that this is not an orderly adjustment, but rather a potential reversal of funds that could evolve into a panic sell-off. When the most steadfast long-term holders turn to sell, the impact is far greater than any institution's reallocation. This massive capital flowing back from the East is reshaping the direction of global assets. Risk assets like BTC and ETH are also not immune to the influence of the broader environment.

What Wall Street truly fears is not the interest rate hike itself, but realizing that the true opposing force is not in the trading halls of New York, but in the investment decisions of countless households across the ocean. This is the biggest source of uncertainty in the global market by the end of 2025.