#数字资产市场洞察 $BTC $ETH $BNB

🔥🔥🔥The chain reaction triggered by the interest rate hike in yen: millions of retail investors on the brink of a "dollar dream" collapse.

❗️In the early morning before the Tokyo market opens, millions of Japanese retail investors are staring at their account numbers— they have accumulated over 300 trillion yen in overseas assets, with US stocks and bonds making up the bulk. Over the past decade, they have consistently invested in dollar-denominated assets through low-interest yen financing, earning a currency spread return of 4% to 6%. This "arbitrage model" has been operating steadily. Domestic deposit rates in Japan have long been close to zero, while the returns on dollar assets have given them a taste of sweetness.

⚠️ A turning point has emerged. The Bank of Japan has announced the end of the negative interest rate period, raising the benchmark interest rate directly to 0.5%. The pressure for the yen to appreciate has sharply increased, and the depreciation of dollar assets has become inevitable. More critically, the retail investors who borrowed in yen for leveraged investments are facing a sudden surge in financing costs, leading to a margin call.

🥲The moment of decision has arrived. Selling means that years of accumulated profits will vanish, and there will also be the burden of exchange rate losses; continuing to hold poses the risk of interest erosion and liquidation. This is not an isolated case, but a collective dilemma spanning across Japan—millions of investors are simultaneously facing this dilemma.

⚠️The market is holding its breath. Once this crowd begins to collectively close their positions, it will unleash a massive amount of selling pressure in dollars. Considering Japan's significant holdings in U.S. Treasuries and U.S. stocks, as well as the deep connection between the crypto market and traditional financial market liquidity, this seemingly "localized" financial storm is very likely to reverse capital flows and cause a chain reaction impact on global risk assets.

What is the next step? The market is waiting for an answer.