#大户持仓动态 The Fed has paused rate cuts, and high Interest Rates will be maintained until spring next year.

On the evening of December 21, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack made a significant statement: a 75 basis point cut has already been made, and it will be paused for the next few months, at least until spring next year before any further action. This move is a solid hawkish operation.

What is the key issue? Harmak is fixated on the risk of inflation rebound. She admitted that the November CPI is 2.7% year-on-year, but this data is inflated—there is a significant statistical bias due to the U.S. government shutdown, and the actual inflation is probably in the range of 2.9%-3.0%. Moreover, this figure has been stuck around 3% for the past year and a half, not coming down. Now, with the addition of tariffs, many companies will follow suit and raise prices in Q1 of next year, which will create new inflationary pressure.

She also added a crucial point: the neutral Intrerest Rate may be higher than the market thinks. In other words, the current benchmark rate of 3.5%-3.75% seems very rigid, but it is actually still driving economic growth. The U.S. economy itself is resilient enough, so there's no rush to exit high rates.

The market reacted immediately: CME futures data shows that the probability of a rate cut in January next year has plummeted, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries continues to rise uncontrollably. What does this mean? As the discount rate rises, the present value of future cash flows shrinks. Stocks and crypto assets, which depend on future growth, are hit the hardest, especially high-growth and high-leverage sectors, facing enormous pressure for valuation adjustments.

What stands out more is the performance of the dollar - the V-shaped reversal is strong, and the Fed's relatively tight policy is attracting capital back to the United States continuously.

What’s next? The market focus is on US inflation and employment data. If inflation stubbornly remains high, the Fed will inevitably delay the interest rate cut cycle, and global asset allocation will need to be more defensive, with the balance between yield and risk tipping towards caution.