I just counted the profits from a round of harvesting, looking at those Us in my Wallet, suddenly I fell into deep thought.

Recently, the most discussed topic is the "failure theory of BTC's four-year cycle." According to the old rule, it should peak at the end of 2025 and bottom out at the end of 2026. But what’s the reality? The peak seems to have come early, and no one can clearly say where the bottom is.

Upon careful consideration, there is a brutal truth behind this: BTC has evolved from an initial game of hundreds of billions in internal funds to a global institutional arena worth tens of trillions. The pulse of this thing has long been tightly bound to the rhythm of the Federal Reserve. Whether miners or exchanges, they are merely actors on the stage; the true director is always "macro liquidity."

The year 2026 is destined to be a freak: it will neither be a crazy rise nor a complete collapse. Rather than being a bull market or a bear market, it is more like a chaotic transitional phase—no doubt the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, but no one knows the rhythm; liquidity will gradually return, but the speed will entirely depend on sentiment.

In this macro "random playback" environment, the old tricks of chasing highs and cutting losses can easily catch you off guard. As an experienced long-term investor, my understanding is: when the market is unclear, rather than exhausting yourself trying to guess the direction of the wind, it is better to invest energy in building a "small ecosystem" that can generate returns regardless of the weather.

This also explains why I am allocating more and more of the profits in my hands to the stablecoin ecosystem. I am not giving up on BTC, but rather adding a layer of "macro hedging" to my overall position. When policies are shaky, stablecoins act like a container full of certainty—when the broader environment is unpredictable, at least this foundation can provide a sense of security. This is much more reliable than sticking to a certain cycle theory.