#以太坊行情解读 🚨 The Bank of Japan is serious this time — the most aggressive interest rate hike in thirty years has finally been implemented. But something strange happened, Bitcoin not only didn't fall, but instead surged. What logic is hidden behind this?

Looking at history makes it clear. In the past three interest rate hikes in Japan, Bitcoin could not escape the curse—within a month after the resolution, it almost inevitably fell by 20%-30%. The reason is very hardcore: "Yen arbitrage" reverses, and those global institutions that borrowed in yen to long risk assets are forced to stop loss, desperately selling assets like $BTC, $ETH, and $ZEC to exchange for yen to pay off debts. A round of capital flight.

💥 What’s different this time? The script of the market has been completely changed:

**1. Panic Released in Advance** The bad news of interest rate hikes has already been fully digested. The plunge before the decision has exhausted the bears' ammunition, and by the day it lands, no one is thinking about crashing the market.

**2. The Yen is still flat** Although interest rates have been raised, the yen's exchange rate remains weak, with no signs of a sharp appreciation so far. This means that arbitrageurs are not in a hurry to close their positions, and the pressure has not truly come yet.

**3. The monetary policy remains loose** Japan's real interest rates are still negative, and the underlying logic of the entire easing cycle has not fundamentally changed.

⚠️ But don't celebrate too early. The risks haven't disappeared; they have just been postponed. There are two signals to keep a close eye on:

· **Yen Trend**: If the yen exchange rate can break through the 150 barrier and the appreciation increases, a trillion-scale liquidation wave could be triggered at any time.

· **Central Bank's Subsequent Attitude**: Will the governor hint at continuing interest rate hikes in 2026? This determines the life and death of arbitrage trading.

💎 The current strategy is actually very clear - we must recognize Bitcoin's value as a non-sovereign asset for hedging, while also being cautious of high-leverage positions. Ecological assets like Ethereum may attract capital, especially those projects with strong consensus. However, the premise is to hold the key support level of BTC; once it breaks, exit quickly.

What do you think? Is this a false alarm, or the eerie calm before the storm? Has the crypto market really escaped the "interest rate curse"?