#数字资产市场洞察 Japan's most aggressive interest rate hike cycle in 30 years has finally arrived, but strangely - Bitcoin did not crash, instead it has entered a rebound market. This breaks the traditional logic of the market.

Flipping through history books reveals the clues. In the past three instances of Japanese interest rate hikes, Bitcoin plummeted by 20%-30% in the following month. The story behind this is simple: the reversal of yen carry trades forced global institutions to liquidate assets to repay debts, triggering a chain sell-off. Assets with high volatility like $BTC, $ETH, and $ZEC are the first to be affected.

What about this time? The situation has changed.

First, the panic has been fully released. Before the interest rate hike decision was finalized, the market had already digested the bad news on its own. The saying that the bad news is fully priced in is not unfounded—people repeatedly reprice in their anxiety, and when the real data is announced, it turns out to be not so scary.

Secondly, the Japanese yen is not as strong as imagined. The exchange rate remains weak, and arbitrageurs have not yet reached the critical point of being forced to close their positions. The pressure of a trillion dollars in concentrated position liquidation has not yet formed.

Third, Japan's monetary policy is essentially still accommodative. Although interest rates have been raised, the real interest rate remains negative, and the overall framework of economic easing has not changed.

However, don't be too optimistic. The real risks have not disappeared, just postponed. The key is to focus on two signals: Can the yen exchange rate break through the critical point of 150? Will the central bank governor hint at consecutive interest rate hikes next year? If both of these happen at the same time, the previous wave of liquidations that were avoided may erupt all at once.

On a strategic level, it is necessary to find a balance between short-term relief and long-term tightening. Avoiding high-leverage operations is a strict requirement, while closely monitoring the key support levels of Bitcoin. In the long run, it is precisely this divergence in monetary policies between Japan and the US that highlights Bitcoin's non-sovereign safe-haven attributes. At the same time, assets with strong consensus in ecosystems like Ethereum are also attracting funds seeking high-rebound opportunities.

What do you think? Was this really just a false alarm, or is it the calm before the storm? Can Bitcoin completely break free from the constraints of interest rate hikes?