Looking at the Order Book at noon, I casually mentioned to my wife that there might be a round of altcoin market at the end of the year. As a result, she burst out laughing: "You say this once every little while, those coins bought for over 300,000 in Spot are now left with just over 10,000, and you’re still here talking about alt season?"

I really feel at a loss for words. To be honest, the experience of chasing alts over the past few years has been quite heartbreaking—every time I hear analyses about cycles and market rotations, I want to go all in, but I've faced plenty of setbacks. Some of the projects I bought at high prices have turned into worthless coins, while others have shrunk to an unbearable extent in the bear market.

Reflecting on it, it's not that the market has not come, but that the timing has not been right. Opportunities for alts do exist, but the era of low-risk gains is over. In the current market environment, blindly chasing the rise of alts can directly evaporate your principal. Rather than expecting "this time it really is alt season" every time, it's better to truly understand the underlying logic of market rotation—when to hold and when to act.