FDV Illusion, to put it bluntly, is the most heart-wrenching reality of this year.

The data from Memento Research is right in front of us—out of the 118 TGEs in 2025, 84.7% of new coins have already dropped below their initial value, with only 15% still holding on, and most early participants' chips have long lost their value to the point of pain.

But more terrifying data has arrived: the entire cryptocurrency market now has over 37 million tokens. Understand the scale of this — there are only about 60,000 to 70,000 publicly listed companies worldwide, and the number of tokens in Crypto is over 500 times that. The amount of money hasn't increased, and people's attention hasn't increased either, but the number of tokens has multiplied by 500. What is the result? With every new coin that appears, the pricing power of all existing coins is diluted again.

Reality is harsh: there are only about a dozen assets that people really care about in the market, and some even just a few. The remaining tens of millions of tokens? From the moment the TGE ends, they basically become things that no one cares about.

In such an ecosystem, those who make money by holding altcoins long-term? To put it bluntly, they are mostly just lucky survivors. The survivor bias is most evident here.