HTX DeepThink: Interest rate cuts no longer equal a bull run? The market lacks confidence, and Bitcoin is slow to break out of the range.

According to Deep潮 TechFlow news, on December 22, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed and pointed out that the current crypto market is locked in a range of “direction undecided, time kills valuation” due to macro narratives and political uncertainty. On one hand, the Fed has cut interest rates three times this year, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.5%-3.75%, and hinted at further room for rate cuts in 2026 on the dot plot; on the other hand, Trump has publicly demanded that “the next chairman should cut rates as soon as they take office” and has shown a preference for the more dovish Hassett among several candidates, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed. The market is beginning to realize that the interest rate path over the next two years depends not only on inflation and growth data but also on political decisions and the Supreme Court's rulings on tariffs and the powers of independent agencies. This has broken the traditional simple logic of “rate cuts = bull run.” There has been a clear differentiation in asset pricing: the expectation of declining interest rates and currency devaluation has pushed up what TD Securities refers to as the “gold bull cycle”—institutions generally bullish on gold hitting the $4,400 range in the first half of 2026. In contrast, the “Christmas rally” in the U.S. stock market has not been smooth: the return cycle of AI capital expenditure is being re-evaluated, with data center projects like Oracle facing bearish sentiment, and high-valuation tech stocks under pressure; transportation, finance, and small-cap stocks are seeing a rebound, while the overall index is more characterized by “sector rotation + range-bound fluctuations” rather than a smooth one-way upward trend. In this macro and emotional context, Bitcoin has also entered a “stagnant zone”. Glassnode's on-chain and derivatives weekly report shows that BTC has been roughly trapped in the range of 81,000–89,000 USD recently, with prices repeatedly finding buying support at the lower end, but continuously facing selling pressure around 90,000, with the overall structure being “fragile but not collapsed”. ETF funds continue to see a slight net outflow, spot CVD has fallen back, futures open interest has declined, and funding rates are close to neutral, all pointing to the same thing: not extreme panic, but a lack of incremental confidence. At the same time, there are still protective positions on the short end of options, especially with heavy put positions around 84,000, while bullish interest around 100,000 has weakened.