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[The Federal Reserve "pausing" and "restarting"—Will there really be three rate cuts in 2025?]

The Federal Reserve's December meeting saw internal conflicts that exceeded expectations. The opposition and the radicals each held their ground in the meeting room, with the opponents determined to maintain interest rates, while the radical voices called for a significant cut of 50 basis points. In the end, a compromise emerged: a 25 basis point adjustment, keeping the interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%. It appears to be a compromise, but in reality, it reflects the substantial divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding the future direction.

Powell's remarks after the meeting carry a "hawkish" tone—emphasizing the need to look at economic data before making decisions, essentially locking in the January meeting. But this is just superficial. With the rotation of voting rights, the hawkish narrative may not always overshadow the dovish one. The real turning point could quietly arrive in the spring.

There is an angle worth pondering: the Federal Reserve talks about stabilizing inflation, but what it's really concerned about is employment. Once the labor market starts to weaken, the door to interest rate cuts will reopen. According to current predictions, there may be action in March, which could lead to a "quarterly rate cut" rhythm, totaling three cuts for the year. If that's the case, by June the rate could be between 3% and 3.25%, which is much more aggressive than many people's expectation of two rate cuts.

Why are you so confident? First, the employment data is right there, and second, the new chairman taking office in May may change the overall tone of the discussion towards a more dovish direction. Although inflation data fluctuates from time to time, the Federal Reserve's response logic is already very clear: compared to being aggressive, stability is the first choice.

Looking ahead, the path of interest rate cuts in 2025 definitely still holds some suspense. However, one bottom line is clear: does a pause mean a stop? Definitely not. The show has just begun.

What do you think, has the three rate cuts been overly hyped? Share your thoughts.