The prediction market has become popular, but not many truly understand it. A point recently shared by Vitalik Buterin is worth pondering: compared to the myriad predictions and boasts flying around on social media, the prediction market is a set of genuinely binding game rules.

What is the most straightforward difference? In the square and the community, you can casually say "Bitcoin will rise to 100,000 tomorrow" without bearing any consequences. But once you enter the prediction market, every prophecy must be backed by real money. Each of your judgments is a costly vote. This mechanism sounds harsh, but precisely because of this, it forces participants to set aside their emotions and think and decide rationally.

V God often does this himself. Whenever he sees a scary news headline, instead of rushing to judgment, he first takes a look at the prices on the prediction market. The probabilities represented by the actual funds put forth by the market are often more calm and credible than any news headline or expert analysis. This signal from collective wisdom helps him quickly penetrate the noise and find the truth.

Stocks in traditional financial markets can be inflated to sky-high prices, detached from any fundamentals. However, the outcome of a prediction market is fixed: it will ultimately be either 1 (the event occurred) or 0 (it did not occur). This black-and-white design makes it difficult for deception and foolishness to survive in the long term. Participants must compete based on real probabilities and must be accountable for their judgments.

From this perspective, prediction markets are not just a gambling venue, but rather a powerful truth discovery mechanism. It aggregates the judgments and capital of a large number of participants, using the price mechanism to consolidate dispersed wisdom, ultimately pointing to reality. The advantage of this mechanism lies in its complete transparency and inability to be cheated, with results verified by reality itself.

Looking ahead, as major events like the World Cup approach, the prediction market sector may face new opportunity windows. At the same time, pay attention to the trends of projects supported by strong consensus communities within the Ethereum ecosystem, as their popularity itself reflects the real-time temperature of market sentiment.

The last question is worth pondering: would you rather believe what the big V said, or trust the votes cast by the market with money?