Recently, the mainstream expectations in the market have undergone a significant adjustment. The probability of the Fed starting to cut interest rates in January has dropped sharply to 19.9%, reflecting a shift in the entire trading logic.

Previously, the market was generally optimistic about the route of "rapid inflation decline → Fed's significant rate cuts", but the story has changed now — economic data shows that the resilience of the U.S. economy far exceeds expectations, which gives the Fed greater leeway. Once the Fed is convinced that the economic fundamentals are solid, rate cuts will no longer be an urgent matter; instead, they will "steady" and wait for more concrete signals.

For participants, the market performance in the coming months will be entirely driven by economic data. Employment reports, CPI data, and the remarks of Fed officials, any of these could trigger a market repricing. This is not a new concept, but the current "data dependence" has become the core logic of the market, no longer just a slogan.

Interest rate cuts will definitely come, but the road will be longer and more winding.