Wall Street has recently shown a rare consistency. The target price for the S&P 500 in 2026 is highly convergent, with a maximum of 8100 points and a minimum of 7000 points, a difference of only 16%—behind this decade-unseen Consensus lies a subtle danger.

Imagine everyone crowding on one side of the boat; even the slightest breeze could cause a collective imbalance. Big firms like Oppenheimer and Deutsche Bank are all calling for 8000 points, and even the "most pessimistic" predictions exude a bullish sentiment. The logic seems flawless: expectations of interest rate cuts, tax reduction policies, AI explosion... It sounds perfect.

But the strategist from Interactive Brokers poured cold water on it: "The consensus has already been priced in, and the market now has no buffer." In other words, all the good news has been digested. What’s even more painful is that inflation remains high, unemployment is rising, and the return on investment in AI is yet to be verified. BNP Paribas issued a warning: "Optimism has become the norm, and once an external shock occurs, the destructive power will be multiplied."

Piper Sandler's data is also interesting—Wall Street's predictions typically lag the market by two months. In other words, it's a "horse after the fact" scenario. When everyone is bullish and increasing their positions, the real risk often lies hidden in this sense of "certainty".

Beneath the calm surface of the water, undercurrents are surging. Cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, as risk assets, are more susceptible to fluctuations driven by these undercurrents. When market liquidity is abundant, anyone can make money; but when the moment of consensus breaks down, how large will the escape window be? This is a question worth pondering.