DOGE has indeed had a lot of screen time recently. On the surface, it looks like a bull run, but if you understand a bit of technical analysis, you can see the clues—this is essentially a setup. Behind the seemingly bullish signals are actually a classic combination of divergence and bull trap.

It is actually not difficult to uncover the dealer's tactics. Nominally, the direction points towards long positions, but the data on open contracts tells a different story. The open interest is increasing, yet the price cannot rise, which is clear evidence of "leverage growth far exceeding actual confidence." To put it simply, it's like a recipe becoming more and more extravagant, yet the portions served on the table are getting smaller — this is not a good sign.

History always loves to repeat itself. Do you remember November 2024? The open interest once soared to $4.6 billion, and in just 5 days, the market value evaporated by $1.5 billion. The current trend is so similar.

On-chain data has further exposed the truth. Addresses holding 100 million to 1 billion DOGE have seen their holding ratio drop from a peak of 53.95% in early December to 50.70%. This is not an accumulation; it is clearly a reduction in holdings. Interestingly, some whales that have been silent for 11 months suddenly became active. Do you really think they are here to distribute red envelopes to retail investors? That's naive.

The technical pressure is piling up layer by layer. To break through upwards, it has to be done step by step like climbing stairs. The pressure zone from 0.132 to 0.133 dollars is the most likely to repeatedly slap those who chase long positions in the recent times.