#美联储回购协议计划 What happened when the gold price broke through 4400 dollars?

This week, the gold market is a bit crazy. After December 18, spot gold completely bid farewell to the fluctuations and rose sharply. On the 22nd, the gold price suddenly broke through the $4,400/ounce barrier and surged to $4,435.48, setting a new historical high. To be honest, this surge seems abrupt, but there are actually quite a few driving factors behind it.

**Three Major Driving Forces in Resonance**

First, let's talk about the U.S. economic data. The November CPI came in at 2.7%, which is much milder than market expectations, while the unemployment rate surged to 4.6%—the highest in four years. This set of data delivers a one-two punch: on one hand, inflation is cooling down, and on the other hand, employment is weakening. So what’s the result? The market is instantly filled with expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026. Rumors of the new Federal Reserve Chairman's dovish tendencies are also circulating, leading to a sharp decline in the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Secondly, the demand for hedging has never faded. The situation in the Middle East and the warming relationship between the U.S. and Venezuela... these uncertainties often drive funds into the safe haven of gold. Additionally, with central banks globally purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold this year, there is solid support for gold prices.

There’s another detail – the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced on the evening of the 22nd that it would tighten risk controls on silver futures, which took effect on the night of the 23rd. As a result, funds in the silver market began to flow massively into gold, giving gold prices another boost.

**Practical Trading Strategies**

What to do now? Be restrained in the short term. With gold prices rising more than 1.7% in a day, the 4-hour RSI has already entered the overbought zone. It's not advisable to chase the highs; it would be better to wait for a pullback to $4380/oz to enter lightly, setting a stop loss below $4350, with a target around $4450. If it directly breaks through $4450, you can enter with a small position, but don't exceed 30% of your total position.

In the long term, the key support level of $4300 is crucial, and it can be accumulated in batches. The logic of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle has not changed, and the central bank's enthusiasm for buying gold has not diminished. The gold price should still have upward potential in the medium term.

Don't forget the US Q3 GDP data on the 23rd. If it comes out better than expected, gold prices may briefly pull back, which could actually be a good opportunity to add to positions.

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