Precious metals have absolutely taken off this year, with gold breaking through the $3400 mark and a year-to-date rise of over 66%. Silver holds above $34, and platinum has also crossed the $2000 threshold. Goldman Sachs has even predicted that gold could reach $4900 next year. The underlying logic is simply the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts, global geopolitical instability, coupled with a weak dollar.

On the contrary, the atmosphere on the crypto side has cooled down quite a bit. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $88,000, down 5% for the year. Bulls are still hoping for a holiday rally before Christmas, breaking through $98,000 and even pushing towards $100,000. Their reasoning is that institutional ETFs continue to buy in, and Trump's pro-crypto policies are about to take effect. However, the bears are also quite vocal, presenting a pullback target of $70,000 to $75,000, with some pessimists even discussing whether the bear market will drag into 2026.

The market fear and greed index is only 24, indicating pure fear mode. The amount of liquidations in the last 24 hours has reached $172 million, which shows how fiercely both bulls and bears are fighting.

In contrast, Ethereum appears to be more composed. The price holds above the $3000 mark, with whales continuously increasing their holdings and on-chain data also performing well. If it breaks upwards, the range of 3200-4200 is worth watching; if it drops, 2700-2800 is the support. In terms of the potential for a rebound, ETH seems to have more promise than Bitcoin.

The altcoin scene is lively, but the shadow of "Altcoin Season" has yet to be seen. Aave was recently hit hard by a whale, and the community has had some unpleasantness over the asset transfer proposal. To drive altcoins, it will rely on new narratives like the Solana ecosystem and Ethena.

ETF data is quite telling. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows of hundreds of millions of dollars, while Solana and XRP have experienced small inflows instead. The entire market is actually at a crossroads—macro factors favor traditional safe-haven assets, and the crypto space is still mainly characterized by fluctuations in the short term.

Is there a possibility of a Christmas rally? Yes, but don't have too high expectations. We need to keep a close eye on technical resistance levels, options expiry points, and U.S. GDP data. In the end, it's still the old saying: risk is on you.