This kind of trap is too common in the crypto world - shouting long on the mouth, but laying out short positions with the hands.

Recently I've been staring at the K-line of DOGE a bit dazed. On the surface, it looks like a bullish pattern, but upon closer analysis, the problems become very clear.

**Signs of Collapse Beneath the Surface Support**

DOGE now seems to have support around $0.19-$0.20, but this is just a facade. The technical indicators have clearly signaled that after breaking below the April low, the downtrend is strengthening. The MACD has formed a death cross, and the short positions have peaked in the past three months. Even more concerning is that the key support level of $0.2089 has been breached three times. If it cannot reclaim the resistance at $0.25, the risk of a chain liquidation will be activated.

**On-chain data explains everything**

Data is the most honest. Whales holding between 100 million to 1 billion DOGE are quietly reducing their holdings, with their share dropping from 53.95% on December 3 to 50.70%—this is not a coincidence, it's a signal that funds are orderly withdrawing. The movements of large capital often lead the market. While they are cutting positions, retail investors are still dreaming of a rebound.

I've seen this situation too many times. On the surface, they shout bullish, but in reality, it's just a phase of unloading. Once the breakdown is confirmed, the subsequent decline will exceed most people's expectations.