#数字资产市场洞察 At this time next year, 80% of alts may really be gone. It won't just be a fall of 70-80%, but a complete delisting, disappearing from the market. There are 883 days left until the next Halving of $BTC, and we are currently at the freezing point of the Halving cycle. Looking back at the data—at the end of 2013, the end of 2017, and the end of 2021, each time this point corresponded to the bottom of the Bear Market. This round is even more dangerous—$BTC and $ETH have Spot ETF funds backing them, while most alts do not, which means the devastation this time for small coins will be deeper than at any point in history.

The role of the project party is rapidly collapsing. In the early years, they dominated the entire ecosystem, handling financing, listing coins, and the secondary market all in one go. Later, market-making institutions rose to prominence, and the project party became a supporting role. By this year, platforms have directly connected the primary and secondary markets, and the project party has completely become a mere extra. Without money, motivation, or meaning to maintain the coin price, the entire market has turned into a pure game of rush.

The most frightening thing is that some project teams are starting to sell coins at low prices - packaged for clearance at 60% off, or even 40% off. Imagine this scene: when the founding team is liquidating their holdings, what reason do they have to save the coin price in the secondary market? Market-making institutions buy up the circulation, and then use contract hedging mechanisms to short, the entire altcoin sector is being systematically liquidated in an organized manner.

Only two categories will survive: mainstream coins backed by ETFs and ecosystem tokens deeply bound to platforms. All the projects that have exploded in popularity this year are closely related to a certain platform. The on-chain world of the future will be more centralized—mining, trading coins, and making transactions; once detached from the platform's ecosystem, losses or exit are almost inevitable.

After the short squeeze frenzy in November and December, next year the alts in the market will once again become a mess. I'm not being bearish; I just want to say one thing: the vast majority of alts are not worth holding for the long term. This is no longer the era of wild growth from ten years ago. Look less at tweets, dream less, and being able to preserve your principal is already a win.