There are only 45 days left until the U.S. government runs out of funds, and a potential serious shutdown crisis is brewing. However, this time, professional investors on Wall Street seem quite calm - they have long turned their attention to safe havens unaffected by political fluctuations.

How tricky is the truth of the crisis? A few data points will make it clear. The issue of medical insurance subsidies is piling up, economic growth has dropped to 1.4%, and inflation is still stubbornly high at 3.1%. Historical lessons are there: the last 43-day shutdown directly evaporated 15 billion dollars.

But the most striking signal comes from the actual actions of capital. Within 24 hours of the announcement of the expected halt, over $1.9 billion flowed out of the U.S. Treasury bond market and converted into stablecoins—this is equivalent to global capital casting a "vote of no confidence" with their feet, turning towards a completely decentralized settlement system.

The crypto market may undergo three waves of shocks next. First is the liquidity contraction period before the halt: the volatility index of the US stock market may soar over 80%, and some risk-averse funds will treat stablecoins as transitional assets, while Bitcoin may experience a panic-driven surge. Second is the data blackout period: key economic data stops being published, the Federal Reserve falls into an information blind spot when making decisions, and institutional investors are forced to refer to on-chain data. Finally, there is the release period: the reissued economic data will create new shock waves.

In simple terms, this is not just a political risk, but a real test of the traditional financial system encountering on-chain assets.