After weekend consolidation, Bitcoin has become significantly active under the push of the US stock market opening. It once surged to the $90,000 mark, and then fluctuated around $89,000, with trends almost in line with the US stock market. However, close to the holiday, apart from that surge, the overall trading enthusiasm in the market is not high. The liquidated short positions amount to only about $12 million, indicating that many investors have chosen to wait and see, and it is expected that this sluggish trading pattern will continue until the end of the year without any major events.

Interestingly, the latest data from the prediction market shows that the probability of gold reaching $5,000 per ounce by the end of June 2026 has risen to 67%, which is higher than the probability of Ethereum reaching $5,000 in the same period. Currently, gold has already surpassed $4,400, and the rising global political and economic risks have undoubtedly propelled this trend. In contrast, Ethereum is still clinging to the $3,000 support level, but under the pessimistic atmosphere of the spreading bear market, it is only a matter of time before it breaks below that level again. This actually reflects a phenomenon—cryptocurrency assets are essentially being positioned by the market as risk assets.

It is worth noting that a report from a well-known investment institution predicts that Ethereum may reach a low of $1800 in the first half of next year. Interestingly, this prediction aligns with the trends in the prediction market. From this perspective, the market's pessimistic expectations for cryptocurrencies have become quite consistent.