#BTC对标贵金属的竞争格局 With the interest rate hike in Japan, the US stock market and the crypto world have rebounded. This is actually quite normal—after unfavourable information is realized, there has to be a buffer period.

The problem is that a group of people sees the Rebound and starts to indulge in fantasies, as if the bear market is already dead and Bitcoin is about to surge back to 100K. First, calm down and check your wallet. The probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in January next year is only 24.8%, which is less than a third. Is this called easing? The high interest rate environment has not changed at all, and there has been no essential improvement in market liquidity.

Japan's interest rate hike is just the first domino in a chain reaction, with many more to follow. The key is that this effect is never felt on the same day - the real pain often comes a week later when the impact hits hard. Looking back to January 23, 2023, there was also a rebound on that day, but a week later a long spike came and pierced through. Now these people are choosing to selectively forget, remembering the rebound but forgetting the lesson.

History never repeats itself, but often the rhymes are similar. This time is mostly the same.