Recently, a set of data on Polymarket has drawn attention. According to the real-time quotes from this decentralized prediction market, Kevin Hassett ( has a probability of 61% of being elected as Fed Chairman, far surpassing Kevin Warsh )'s 21% and Christopher Waller ('s 10%.

This is not a public opinion poll, but a direct pricing of "future currency power" with real funds. When the prediction market gives the number 61%, the situation is already very clear — the market has begun to layout in advance.

From the logic of the prediction market, 50% represents complete uncertainty, 60% means that mainstream consensus has formed, and anything above 70% is basically a done deal. The 61% point has already broken through the "discussion phase" and entered the pre-trading phase. In other words, the market is not waiting for an official announcement, but rather for retail investors to react.

Why Hassett? Many people are still struggling with "whose qualifications are stronger", but the real logic does not lie here. Hassett currently serves as the Director of the National Economic Council of the United States—this position is crucial. He is not some independent technocrat, but rather the executor of the economic will of the White House. This means he has a stronger alignment with the high-level decision-making system. Furthermore, recent reports from the U.S. media suggest that the Fed chairman may be appointed in the first week of January, and when these two pieces of information are combined, the 61% probability given by the prediction market becomes easier to understand.