London gold has broken through $4461/oz to set a new historical high, while domestic gold T+D has held above 996 yuan/g, and the Shanghai gold main contract has even surpassed 1003 yuan/g, with a daily increase of over 15 yuan. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative increase in gold prices has approached 70%, and the momentum of this upward trend is indeed astonishing.

Breaking down the logic behind this rise, there are mainly three supporting aspects. The first is the continued rise in risk aversion sentiment—tensions in US-Venezuela relations are escalating, the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, and frequent warnings between Iran and Israel in the Middle East, along with multiple geopolitical hotspots fermenting simultaneously, have led institutional funds to flow into traditional safe-haven assets. The second comes from a shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy, with the US dollar index falling nearly 10% this year, and the new leadership of the Federal Reserve leaning towards a more moderate policy stance, significantly reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Investment banks like Goldman Sachs and UBS have set their 2026 target prices in the range of $4,900 to $5,000. The third is the continued increase in global allocation, as our central bank has increased its gold reserves for 19 consecutive months, and internationally, the holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF have also reached a nearly two-year high. This kind of institutional buying support should not be underestimated.

From the current node, the firm bullish outlook still applies, but caution is needed when chasing highs. A technical adjustment may actually present a better entry point.