Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around 88211 dollars, with differing expectations from various market participants regarding future trends. According to Polymarket's prediction data, the probability of BTC reaching 100,000 dollars within the year is about 8%. This figure reflects a cautious attitude in the market, but it is also worth a deeper analysis.

From a technical perspective, the current BTC exhibits an interesting dual characteristic. The support level at 87090 has been validated multiple times, with each touch accompanied by a rebound, indicating that there is indeed strong buying support in this area. The clear resistance at 89124 creates an obvious pressure, while the repeated tests around 88000 show the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

Technical indicators have conveyed some positive signals. The RSI is currently in the range of 33-45, which is similar to a compressed spring – excessive overselling often indicates the potential for a rebound. In the moving average system, although the short-term MA5 and MA10 have retraced, the medium-term moving averages still maintain a bullish arrangement. This structural difference usually means that the decline may only be a technical adjustment rather than a trend reversal.

The price will face a key test if it breaks through the upper resistance level of 90599 dollars. Once it effectively breaks through, the range of 90000-91000 dollars may become the next target. However, a breakout requires accompanying trading volume—without sufficient buyers, any one-sided surge is likely to fall into a "false breakout" situation.

For participants, the operational idea for this position should be: pay full attention to the resilience of the support below, while keeping an eye on the breakthrough opportunities of the resistance above. In the short term, it may maintain a range oscillation between 87090-89124, while the direction of the breakout will determine the medium-term directional market. The key for the market lies in whether it can achieve an upward breakthrough supported by trading volume in the next few trading days.