Yesterday, ETH fell from 3077 to 2943 in that round of decline, which indeed scared a wave of retail investors. But looking closely at the market data, this move is worth exploring.

Starting from the 1-hour chart. The sharp fall accurately hit the BOLL lower band at 2953.18, just 9 points away from breaking the level - the result was an instant rebound, pulling directly to the current price of 3038, breaking above the BOLL middle band at 3004. The MACD also formed a golden cross, with DIFF currently steady at 12.04 above DEA at 7.29. This combination looks more like the controlling power confirming an upward momentum rather than an ordinary rebound.

On-chain data is more interesting. In the past 60 minutes, the total ETH balance of a leading exchange and other mainstream platforms decreased by 1500 coins—this indicates that real large funds are taking over. Looking at large transfers (≥100 ETH), 90% are flowing to locked addresses rather than liquidity pools, which is a typical "coin hoarding operation before preparing for a price increase."

The news is more important. Ethereum core developers have a meeting tonight to announce the second phase of the scaling plan after the Cancun upgrade. Once this kind of substantial technical progress is confirmed, it usually can drive an increase of more than 5%. The current fluctuation is likely large funds clearing out floating chips before the news is released.

Overall, the divergence signal from the technical aspect + concentrated accumulation on the chain + news catalysis have occurred simultaneously, creating a relatively clear window for going long. The short-term key support is at the 2980 level, and if it breaks, the next target is 3120.