#数字资产市场洞察 big dump Sideways breakout: The rollover logic understood with a profit of 50,000.

In the deep winter of 2019, I heard a story during a night run in Shenzhen Bay. A brother with crutches insists on walking 5 kilometers every day. He said that leg was "broken by the coin"—after the big dump in March 2018, he kicked the table in anger after a 20x short position liquidation, which landed him in the hospital. Now his account has returned to 3 million, and his core summary is just four words: buy low and accumulate.
I recorded this methodology and used a profit of 50,000 to conduct a year-long validation test. It's not investment advice, just pure trading notes.
**Only by staying alive can you have a chance to turn the tables**
First, stop the bleeding of losses. My account once dropped to 30,000, and I directly withdrew the remaining funds, leaving only 50,000 as new principal. This decision looks awkward, but in reality, it is very clear-headed—surviving is more important than anything else. Only operate with profits, and stop the losses here; half of the mental preparation is complete.
**Position is the line of life and death**
The rules are very rigid, and precisely because they are rigid, they are effective:
- Isolated margin mode, only 5000 is used as margin for a 50,000 account.
- Leverage limit of 10x, set a 2% hard stop loss
- Practice with a small position without a clear opportunity, keeping the principal unchanged.
The benefit of doing this is that the damage from a single mistake is limited. Many people think this is overly cautious, but in the contract market, stability is productivity.
**When three types of breakout signals appear simultaneously**
Not every time is it appropriate to be fully invested. My standard is:
1. big dump over 50%, the bottom has already been smashed out.
2. Sideways consolidation lasts for more than 30 days, with sufficient competition between bulls and bears.
3. When breaking through the previous high, wait for another 3% confirmation to prevent a false breakout.
At the same time, look at the on-chain data - $BTC or the USDT premium turning positive for $ETH , with a net inflow on-chain for three consecutive days. When these signals overlap, invest the entire margin of 5000, with a stop loss still at 2%. This is the real "waiting", not frequent trading, but trading with patience.
The 120-day moving average is stable, and signals of rising volume and price are everywhere, having no reference value. The key lies in those few indicators that can identify the true intentions of the main force.
**Profit is the principal**
A margin deadlock with a position of 5000, never add more. The profit earned is the real money. When the increase reaches 10%, use that 10% additional profit to add another 5000, so there are two 5000 running. If the market continues and the increase reaches 50%, the account can multiply 3 to 4 times, at that time withdraw 30% to take profit, and continue with the rest.
The logic behind this is: always protect the initial capital, and only take risks with the profits. Even if you lose everything, there is still a bottom line.
**Do not engage with three types of market conditions**
Volatility, downtrend, and hot spots. These three market states are the breeding ground for itchy hands syndrome. Frequent entry and exit during volatility only benefits the exchange in transaction fees, holding a full position during a downtrend is suicidal, and chasing hot spots is just the rhythm of taking over. Rollover is only suitable for clearly trending markets; it's best to rest in ambiguous situations.
In the cryptocurrency world, those who can survive until the end are not the ones who frequently make trades. Knowing when not to act is more valuable than knowing how to operate. Rollover is essentially about waiting for fate.
**Rhythm is more important than reaction speed**
The market is always noisy, with voices calling you to enter every minute. The real logic of making money never lies in this chaos, but in staying calm at key moments and clearly seeing where the deep rhythm is. Many people are not slow in their operations, but are trapped by the noise of the market, busying themselves aimlessly.
Understanding when to advance and retreat is what makes a trader live the longest. It's not about being bold, but being clear-headed.