BTC is currently facing a critical test at the hourly level. 88151 is the resistance above, while 86856 serves as an important support level. The long wick candle that appeared in the afternoon just touched this level but failed to continue falling, indicating that the support still has some effect. The problem lies in the severely insufficient rebound strength—there wasn't even a breakthrough of the small neckline at 87683, reflecting a clear lack of upward momentum in the market.

From a technical perspective, to stop the fall and initiate a rebound, we must first take down 87683. Only by stabilizing at this position and returning to run within the flag pattern can we truly start the rebound. If the rebound encounters resistance again and cannot break through 87683, it may test the 86856 support level once more — and whether this support can hold is uncertain. Once it falls below, the focus shifts to 85566.

In the short term, there is a high probability of narrow fluctuations between 86856 and 87683, and the specific direction may need to wait for the U.S. stock market to open. It is worth noting that the hourly RSI has entered the overbought area, indicating a technical demand for a rebound.

From a structural perspective, the hourly chart shows a head and shoulders top pattern, with the neckline at 87528, currently in a broken state. The key is whether the next 3 candlesticks can close back above 87528. If none of the 3 candlesticks can stabilize above 87528, the head and shoulders top pattern will be confirmed, and the decline could extend to around 84410. Only by reclaiming above 87528 can this risk pattern be negated, or by breaking through the right shoulder (around 88923) to mitigate the risk.

Trading reference: If BTC breaks through 87683 on the hourly chart, you can follow up with a long position, targeting 88167-88895; if it breaks 86856 with volume and cannot recover, then consider a short position. On the 4-hour level, if it breaks below 86961, look down towards the range of 86094-85227.