Do you still remember the scene in 2020? Gold first hit a new high, while Bitcoin was still stumbling below its old high at that time. What happened later - as the gold rally paused, Bitcoin started that wave of crazy pump.

Now, the same story seems to be playing out again.

Gold hit a new high yesterday, with an annual rise of over 70%, while Bitcoin is stuck around $88,000, down a full 30% from the peak in October. This gap is quite obvious.

Looking ahead at this year's macro environment: the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times in a row, the Treasury is still pouring 40 billion dollars a month into buying government bonds, the global money supply is hitting new highs repeatedly, and liquidity is continuously flowing into the market. So the question arises—where is all this money going? Just like in the previous two cycles, it first all flowed into gold.

But there is a detail here: the buying data for gold seems to have been seriously overdrawn, and the space for short-term further increases is being squeezed. Once these funds start to move towards other asset classes, how much elasticity will Bitcoin's rebound have? Just imagine.

The data comparison is quite straightforward — the global market value of gold is approximately 31 trillion dollars, while Bitcoin is only 1.75 trillion. If in the next 5 years Bitcoin's market value can only reach 30% of gold's level, the corresponding price would have to be around 450,000 dollars. This is just a conservative estimate.

History may not repeat itself completely, but we can always see shadows that seem familiar. Will this time be an exception? Time will provide the answer.