On the evening of December 23 at 21:30, the United States will intensively release key economic data including the preliminary value of the annualized quarterly GDP for the third quarter, the core PCE price index, and October durable goods orders. This combination of data is likely to become the main pricing logic in the crypto market recently through the transmission chain of the Fed's policy expectations.

Looking at the changes in market expectations makes it clear: core PCE rose from a previous value of 2.6% to an expected 2.9%, indicating that inflation is still sticky; GDP dropped from a previous value of 3.8% to an expected 3.3%, showing that economic growth is slowing; durable goods orders are even more dramatic, shifting directly from 0.5% to -1.5%. This set of data reflects the market's early digestion of the fundamentals that "growth is under pressure and inflation is hard to dissipate" in the United States.

The key point is that the data results will have different market interpretation paths:

**Scenario One**: Inflation unexpectedly rises, economic resilience exceeds expectations → The Fed has more room to maintain a high interest rate cycle → Dollar liquidity further tightens → Risk assets such as Ethereum and Bitcoin come under pressure.

**Scenario 2**: Mild inflation decline, weakening economic data → Interest rate cut expectations rise again → Cryptocurrencies, as risk assets, welcome the opportunity for valuation recovery.

**Scenario Three**: Data divergence, some indicators are good while others are not → the market falls into a fluctuation, and funds need to wait for details to emerge before they can re-anchor the price.

The current crypto market is quite sensitive to the liquidity signals from the Fed, and after the data is released tonight, it is likely to bring an increase in volatility. The most prudent approach for investors during this period is to wait and see, and adjust their positions based on the actual situation once the data is clear, without rushing to place bets in advance.