#美联储回购协议计划 # Rollover must do homework beforehand: How to give trading "pulse" with technical analysis

In front of the market, many people are just guessing. In fact, as long as you learn to read charts, you can grasp the market's temperament and characteristics to a large extent.

## First set the direction, then find the position

In any trade, the first step is to understand which way the market is headed. Looking at the moving average system is the most straightforward method—when MA50 crosses above MA200, it signals the bulls starting to gain strength; conversely, a death cross means one should be extremely alert. When MACD is above the zero line, the bullish position is relatively stable; once it sinks below, the risks increase significantly. As for the RSI indicator, a value above 70 indicates that the market is somewhat overheated, and caution is warranted; below 30 indicates an oversold area, which might present an opportunity. However, there's a pitfall: relying solely on one indicator for judgment will lead to being taught a lesson by the market nine out of ten times. Multiple signals need to resonate together; only then are the trades worth participating in.

## The key position is the "ambush point"

Resistance levels often appear in areas where previous highs are concentrated, or at the 61.8% level identified using Fibonacci retracement. Support levels depend on where the previous low platforms are, and also on the areas with the highest volume accumulation. Want to confirm if it’s really a breakout? Count the number of consecutive candlesticks that remain stable; if three consecutive candlesticks are above and accompanied by increased volume, that is considered a true breakout.

## Divergence signals are most likely to hide reversals

Prices have reached a new high, but the MACD or RSI is moving down? This is called a bearish divergence, which usually means that the upward momentum is running out, and it might be time to reduce positions or even short. Conversely, when prices hit a new low and the indicators are rising, this is a bullish divergence, indicating that the downward pressure is also weakening. At this point, adding positions or planning for a rebound depends on personal style.

## How to Use Combination Attacks in Practice

The safest way to roll over is: moving averages are neatly aligned upwards + MACD has just formed a golden cross + has just broken through key resistance levels, wait for all three conditions to appear before taking action. The opportunity for a reversal usually occurs when: a double bottom pattern is formed + a bottom divergence appears + RSI turns up from the oversold area. Conversely, there are a few situations best avoided—when indicators contradict each other, when trading volume significantly shrinks, or when the market is just consolidating sideways without direction.

## These four golden rules may not change the market, but they can change your chances of survival.

The long-term cycle is the compass, while the short-term cycle is the specific timing for placing orders. Trading volume is always more honest than indicators; respecting the market's real buy and sell data is never wrong. Divergence signals can sometimes be delayed, so don't rush to reverse your position; combine candlestick patterns and observe one or two more candles. The last and most important point — set your stop-loss before opening a position every time; surviving gives you the chance to rollover, but if you are out, it's all over.

## Advanced Players' Toolkit

The wave theory is used to count waves to assist in judging the major trend levels. The Bollinger Bands have great power when they are narrowing combined with a breakout. If you want more precision, you can take a look at on-chain data, such as the movements of whales and the net inflow and outflow situation of exchanges, as these often hint at the intentions of the main players. Additionally, the resonance of multiple time cycles is important—if the daily chart shows the right direction and the 4-hour and 1-hour charts are also aligned, the opportunities at that time become more certain.

$BTC $ETH

Remember this: technical analysis is essentially a game of probabilities, and there is no perfect indicator that can predict with 100% accuracy. Those who make money are not necessarily the ones who predict the best, but rather those who have the best discipline and the most solid risk control.