Staring at the fluctuations of the Candlestick on the screen, I remember a saying I once heard: "Bulls and bears are just labels the market gives you, those who truly play this game only look at trends and risks."

In the past few days, the backend messages have exploded. A lot of people are anxious and asking me the same question: "If it keeps falling like this, is the bull market over or is the bear market coming?" In my years in this industry, I've heard this question countless times. But this time, I can feel that everyone is really panicking.

Watching mainstream assets plummet from their peaks, with declines reaching 20% to 30%, and some smaller coins being even more exaggerated, directly halving and then halving again. The market educates everyone in the most brutal way: the rules are just that real.

**Emotionally Frozen Market**

The current market sentiment is as cold as mid-winter. Bitcoin has fallen from the historical high of $126,000 created in October last year, dropping below $100,000, and even briefly touching around $93,000. It has nearly given back all the gains made this year.

The panic index has fallen to a new low in nearly half a year. At times like this, emotional reactions are often more terrifying than the actual risks themselves.

What’s even more heartbreaking is that even those long-term holders are starting to waver. In the past month, long-term Bitcoin holders have cumulatively sold over 320,000 BTC. These veterans, who were supposed to be the "ballast" of the market, are all choosing to cash out and leave. This is not a good signal.

The exchange's Bitcoin reserves are still increasing. What does this indicate? Many people are already prepared to sell at any time. The selling pressure is being gradually amplified.

**The funds speak the truth**

The situation on the funding side is even more concerning. The once booming Bitcoin spot ETF has recently seen consecutive net outflows. In just the month of November, over $1.3 billion has flowed out.

Institutional buying is also clearly slowing down. Those publicly listed companies that usually take aggressive positions have increased their holdings by about 43,000 Bitcoins this quarter, but the effort is noticeably less than before. The flow of funds speaks volumes—cautious, observant, waiting.

Interestingly, when long-term holders are selling off, institutions are slowing down, and exchange reserves are increasing, the bottom signals of the market have not truly appeared yet. This is a dangerous accumulation of signals.

**Trend vs Tag**

Back to the initial question: "Is this a bull or a bear?" I think the question is wrong.

Real players never care about this label. They look at the direction of the trend, where the support level is, where the resistance is, and where the funds are flowing. When long-term holders are selling, short-term funds are waiting, and spot buying is shrinking, no matter what you call it, the information the market is conveying is the same.

This decline has made many people see themselves clearly. Those who originally thought they could withstand 100% volatility now realize that their psychological tolerance might only be half of that. Market education is always so direct.