Assessment of the basic situation: Is it "bottom building" or "downward correction"?

• Short-term support confirmation: ETH bounced near $2,962, indicating strong buying demand from buyers and selling closure from sellers in this area.
• Request to fix indicators: KDJ for 15 minutes/hour in the low oversold zone. Technically, a single upward bounce is needed to address the deviation rate from the sharp drop in the morning.
• Determine the direction: a rebound rather than a reversal. The overall trend at the 4-hour and daily levels still leans downward. Therefore, the following strategy is: re-buy the short position at the high levels > speculate on the rise at the support level.
Open selling positions again at high levels ( key strategy, in line with the medium trend )
The next ideal secondary selling points will move slightly downward:
• First pressure zone: $3,010 - $3,025 (the middle line of the Bollinger band for one hour).
• Second resistance zone: $3,040 - $3,055 (near the morning low).
• If the price retraces near $3,025 and upper shadows appear, a new sell order can be opened (. The trade size can be set to half of the previous size ).
• Stop loss: Set it at $3,075 (. The stop loss should be placed at the break of the previous peak ).
• Profit-taking: Once again, a look at this dense buying liquidation area at $2,950.
3. Weighting risks/opportunities before Christmas
• 24 hours of risk: If it falls below $2,950, it will trigger the liquidation of $8.5 billion in buy orders we calculated before. At that time, the market will show a vertical drop, directly to $2,880.
• Christmas Market: Historically, it occurs on Christmas Eve (23-24) often exhibiting "downward correction" behavior before rising again.
Basic monitoring: searching for "golden pit"
Liquidity hunting (Entering a high win rate purchase)
• Ideal entry level: $2,880 - $2,915
• Logic: * Dense discharge zone: The first support line we mentioned earlier is $2,950. The last real support line for the bulls and the dense discharge zone is located near $2,880 - $2,900.
• Support level on the daily timeframe: Based on the daily candlestick chart, the lower Bollinger Band is currently extending upwards, where strong support is forming near $2,880.
• Trading recommendations: Do not place direct orders, but wait for the price to drop quickly and break $2,950. When it reaches around $2,900 with a rapid decrease in volume, or even when a long lower shadow appears for 15 minutes, enter the market at the current price.
• Stop loss: $2,840 ( If it drops below the previous minimum, the Christmas market essentially announces its end ).
• Goal: Review $3,050.
Confirmation of the reversal ( the right side is safe to enter a buy )
• Confirm the entry point: $3,035 - $3,045 ( after stabilization )
• Logic: * Breaking resistance: The starting point of this downward movement was at $3,060. If the price can reclaim $3,030 and hold firmly for one hour, it means that the break was a "full bear trap (Bear Trap)".
• Start of the Christmas Market: Stability in this area usually indicates the official start of the Christmas Market, with the goal being $3,300.
• Stop loss: $2,990.
• Target: $3,200 - $3,350.
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