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CME FedWatch: The probability of maintaining the Interest Rate in January next year is 86.7%, with expectations for a rate cut only in March.
The CME futures market's Fed policy observation tool has provided the latest expectations. In January next year, the probability of the Fed continuing to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is only 13.3%, while the market is more inclined to maintain the interest rate unchanged, with a probability as high as 86.7%—this means that it is highly likely to remain unchanged in January.
Looking ahead to March next year, the situation becomes more complex. The likelihood of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points rises to 40.7%, but the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged still accounts for the majority, at 54.4%. At the same time, the market is also pricing in a more aggressive rate cut scenario - the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 5.0%, which, while not high, is not zero.
Understanding from another angle: The market remains cautious about the Fed's interest rate cut pace in the first half of next year. This has a substantial impact on the liquidity environment for crypto assets and the pricing of risk assets.
The drama will only start in March? Let's see then. For now, we still need to watch out for a sudden hawkish turn.
The Federal Reserve's procrastination is really impressive; the liquidity still hasn't arrived, making crypto trading quite tough.
Likely, in the first half of next year, we'll still need to be cautious and conservative, with not much to look forward to.
86.7% chance of no change? That means we’ll have to keep waiting through the winter...
Waiting until March to see a rate cut? I doubt it, 54% still maintain, the Federal Reserve is really dragging its feet this time.
It's still "cautious attitude," in plain words, it means we still have to endure, liquidity isn't coming back so quickly.
If this continues, when will we actually see a real rate cut cycle...
Waiting in January is pointless, better to pay attention to March's movements, although the chances aren't great either.
Again, waiting so long? The crypto circle can't afford to wait that long.
It seems we shouldn't expect any favorable policies in the first half of next year, and the trapped investors will be stuck for a while longer.
Wait, how can the liquidity environment improve like this... the crypto world still has to endure in the first half of next year.
Rate cuts seem far away, and it feels like we're about to fall into a long-term sideways rhythm.
50 basis points is only 5%? Forget it, don’t think too optimistically.
The Fed is so cautious, what should we do?
Next year we continue to eat according to the Fed's mood, damn it.