Core situation assessment: Is it a "bottoming" or a "downward correction"?

• Short-term support confirmation: ETH spiked and rebounded around $2,962, indicating that there is indeed strong buying pressure from long positions and short position liquidations in that range.
• Indicator repair demand: 15-minute/1-hour KDJ is in an oversold position at a low level. Technically, a upward pullback is needed to digest the divergence rate from the sharp drop in the early morning.
• Trend determination: rebound rather than reversal. Overall, the 4-hour and daily levels remain bearish. Therefore, the next strategy is: short positions on high levels > short-term longs at support.
Shorting again at a high position (main strategy, in line with the medium-term trend)
The ideal secondary short point will slightly shift downward:
• First resistance zone: $3,010 - $3,025 (1 hour Bollinger middle band).
• Second resistance zone: $3,040 - $3,055 (near the starting point of the fall in the early morning).
• If the price rebounds to around $3,025 and shows an upper shadow, you can re-enter a short position (the position can be set to 1/2 of the previous one).
• Stop loss: Set at $3,075 (must stop loss before breaking the previous high).
• Take profit: Looking back at the $2,950 area, which is a dense liquidation zone for long positions.
3. Risk/Opportunity Weight Before Christmas
• 24-hour risk: If it falls below $2,950, it will trigger the $850 million long liquidation we calculated before. At that time, the market will fall vertically, directly looking at $2,880.
• Christmas Market: Historically, on Christmas Eve (23-24), there is often behavior of "inducing a short" followed by a rally.
Core Observation: Looking for the "Golden Pit"
Liquidity hunting (high win rate pin bar buy)
• Ultimate entry point: $2,880 - $2,915
• Logic: * Dense liquidation zone: The $2,950 we mentioned before is just the first line of defense. The real bulls' last line of defense and the dense liquidation zone are around $2,880 - $2,900.
• Daily support level: Referring to the daily candlestick, the lower Bollinger Band is currently extending upwards, forming strong support around $2,880.
• Operation suggestion: Do not place a direct order, but wait for the price to rapidly increase in volume and break down below $2,950, and enter the market at market price when it quickly shrinks around $2,900, or even when a 15-minute long lower shadow appears.
• Stop loss: $2,840 (if it falls below the previous low, the Christmas rally will basically be declared over).
• Target price: Revisiting $3,050.
Confirm reversal (right side safe to long)
• Confirm entry position: $3,035 - $3,045 (after stabilizing)
• Logic: * Breaking Resistance: The starting point of this downward move is at $3,060. If the price can recover to $3,030 and stabilize at the 1-hour level, it indicates that the breakdown is a complete "Bear Trap."
• Christmas rally begins: Stabilizing here usually signifies the official start of the Christmas rally, with a target straight to $3,300.
• Stop loss: $2,990.
• Target range: $3,200 - $3,350.
$ETH #今日你看涨还是看跌？ #加密市场小幅回暖 #2025Gate年度账单 #BTC行情分析