12.24 Bitcoin

The market will close early on December 24 and will be closed all day on the 25th. The liquidity contraction during the holiday leads to a thinner order book, significantly increasing the risk of price volatility, creating a window for main players to manipulate. Currently, BTC has entered a bear market cycle, with demand growth falling below the long-term trend, and ETF funds net outflowing 24,000 coins. Additionally, the price has fallen below the key 365-day moving average (approximately $98,172), and there is a lack of upward support from a technical perspective.
Japan's interest rate hike has not fully released its negative impact: On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 0.75% (the highest in 30 years) and hinted at further increases in 2026. The reversal of yen arbitrage trades has forced funds to withdraw from crypto assets—historical data shows that BTC usually corrects by 20%-30% after such rate hikes, but it has only corrected 7% from the monthly high, leaving ample room for further declines.
Currently, BTC is fluctuating around 87,500, with strong resistance forming at 90,000 above and 87,000 USD serving as a key short-term support below. If it breaks down, it is likely to test the range of 86,000-84,000 USD. The market has been "painting doors" back and forth over the past three days, and the probability of a pullback testing support at the 1-hour level is extremely high.

It is recommended to short in the range of 88500-89000.

Target: 87000-86000, if it breaks down, it can extend to look at 84000-80000.
- Risk prevention: In a bear market + low liquidity environment, avoid sudden "needle" market movements $BTC #2025Gate年度账单