Ethereum is currently facing the combined pressure of several difficulties. On the technical front, there is a strong bearish atmosphere, the derivatives market is crowded with long positions, and the macro liquidity continues to tighten—these three forces acting together have increased the probability of a fall in the short term to 65% within 24-48 hours.

The most critical point right now is the long positions liquidation wall at $2,948. If the price falls below it, it could trigger a chain reaction, crashing all the way down to $2,880 and then to $2,785. But from another perspective, if this level holds and the trading volume increases to ( over 20% more than the 24-hour average ), the probability of rebounding back to $2,990-$3,020 is about 35%.

Want to set up long positions? You need to meet at least 3 conditions: the price stabilizes in the support range of $2,919-$2,926, the 1-hour RSI rebounds after falling below 40, the MACD histogram is positive on both the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, and there is a significant increase in trading volume. Once the short positions liquidation breaks through $2,967, it can free up $8.15M in funds.

If you're entering the market, allocate your positions in batches. Buy in three increments between $2,920 and $2,935, with the first batch being 30% of your position. Set the stop loss at $2,895, controlling the decline within 1.3%; this is the bottom line. Take profit in two steps: the first target is $2,990(, which is also the upper band of the 1-hour Bollinger Bands); reduce half when the increase reaches 2%. The second target is $3,020(4-hour EMA20); liquidate all when the increase reaches 3.1%.