2025-12-24 04:30:48

The Australian dollar against the US dollar has reached a 14-month high. What is behind this? The latest data shows that AUD/USD has risen 0.2% to 0.6713 intraday, marking the strongest performance since October 2024. This quarter, the cumulative rise of the Australian dollar has expanded to 1.5%, shining among developed market currencies.

The core logic driving this wave of rise is very straightforward: a rebound in consumer spending combined with strong wage data has led to rising inflationary pressures. The market generally bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will start raising interest rates as early as June next year, which means that the long period of monetary easing is coming to an end.

What do institutions think? The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has made a significant prediction — the Australian dollar is expected to challenge 0.68 by the end of the year. This judgment is based on two supports: the improvement of the global economic environment and the interest rate hike expectations in early 2026. Short-term traders need to pay close attention to the resistance level of 0.6750. Upcoming focal points include Australia's Q4 CPI data, RBA meeting minutes, and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, which could all become turning points for the exchange rate.

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WalletInspector

· 10h ago

The AUD's recent rally is quite interesting, and the 0.68 target feels a bit uncertain... Let's wait and see how the Federal Reserve moves.

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AirdropAutomaton

· 13h ago

If 0.68 really breaks, then the Australian dollar has truly started to rise.

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BrokenYield

· 13h ago

0.68 copium? lol, fed's still the wildcard here—one hawkish pivot and this whole narrative collapses.

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DeFiDoctor

· 13h ago

The clinical manifestations of the Australian dollar's recent rise are very clear - strong consumption, rising wages, and sharply increasing inflation pressure, typical symptoms of overheating. The diagnosis shows that the RBA needs to prepare for action; a rate hike in June is basically a done deal. The number 0.68 sounds nice, but what I'm more concerned about is - once this central bank tightening cycle starts, will liquidity exhaustion reverse and break through 0.67? Short-term resistance level speculation is meaningless; the key is to watch the CPI data and the synergistic effect of Fed policies. Whoever turns first wins.

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TokenToaster

· 13h ago

Is the Australian dollar going to da moon again? Can 0.68 really break?... It feels like the speculation about interest rate hikes in June is more significant.

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SchrodingerGas

· 14h ago

Can 0.68 really break? I think it depends on how the Fed signals it; otherwise, this is just a collective illusion of "rational expectations."

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MoneyBurnerSociety

· 14h ago

Has the Australian dollar risen again? This group of negative alpha kings will be played for suckers once more. I don't know if it will break 0.68, but my liquidation price is the target price... With the interest rate hike expectations and resistance levels, instead of talking pretty, why not just tell me how to buy the dip before June? The market is already speculating on expectations before the RBA has even moved. I'm familiar with this trick, the first chapter of the pitfall guide. I trust the predictions of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia like a ghost; the last time they shouted like this, I directly cut my positions.

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