#比特币流动性 Signals of institutional retreat: $BTC demand side is drying up

Bull markets are born from consensus, while bear markets develop in forgetfulness — this is not merely a technical correction, but a rapid decline in market participants' willingness to buy.

Three major forces simultaneously hit the brakes

In this upward cycle, the true price drivers are not scattered investors, but three institutional forces taking turns: US spot ETF, geopolitical cycles, and large corporate reserve strategies. The current situation is their collective effort to tighten the net.

The most noteworthy details include:

**ETF holdings have reversed**. After last year's frenzy of accumulation, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been consistently net selling this year. On-chain data shows a reduction of about 24,000 BTC in holdings. This is not a simple position adjustment but a strategic liquidation of positions.

**Growth of large addresses has stalled**. The number of addresses holding 100-1000 BTC has stopped increasing. This indicator is crucial — it reflects whether "capable participants" are still accumulating. Looking back at the end of 2021, a similar stagnation occurred, followed by a long-term correction.

**Long-term moving averages have been broken**. The price has fallen below the 365-day moving average. Many people see this line as a technical reference, but in reality, it signals a deeper message: the confidence bottom line of long-term holders.

Retail investors are doing the "last bagging"

The key issue is not "will it continue to fall," but "who is still buying."

The story this time is: big institutions have exhausted policy dividends, election cycle benefits, and narrative premiums, and then they are gone. Now, only retail investors are left dancing alone. In other words, who is your opponent? No one is left. When no one is taking the other side, prices will reveal the true nature of supply through action.

Three risk management tips

If you still hold positions now, you should ask yourself these questions:

**1. Review your position composition**. Check how much of your current holdings were bought at high levels. If more than 50% of your funds were invested during the recent upward phase, then you are essentially acting as the "last demand side." This role usually has no good ending.

**2. Don't blindly believe in bottom-fishing logic**. Institutional sell-offs have just begun, and trying to catch falling knives with your hands will most likely result in cuts. Even more terrifying is that this "knife" may be sharper than you imagine.

**3. The importance of stablecoin reserves**. In a bear market environment, keep at least 30% in USDT or other stablecoins. This is not a sign of conservatism or fear, but rational allocation. Cash liquidity in extreme markets is like an oxygen tank for survival — it can save your life at critical moments.

The market never changes direction because of one person's expectations. Sensitivity to data is often more valuable than optimism.