#以太坊行情解读 The rate cut expectation shattered, the Federal Reserve's probability of holding steady in January approaches 80%

CME's latest observations show that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January next year has risen to 79%, while the chance of a 25 basis point rate cut remains only 21%. This means that the market's previously high hopes for a easing cycle are unlikely to materialize in the short term.

More interesting is the situation in March—the probabilities of a rate cut and holding steady are roughly evenly split (46.9% vs 43.6%), and the expectation of a large 50 basis point cut can essentially be forgotten.

Why is the Federal Reserve so cautious? The reasons are quite clear: inflation remains above the 2% target, employment data is still robust, and combined with the uncertainties brought by new policies, Powell and his colleagues have chosen to wait and see.

How will the crypto market react? That’s the key. After the last rate cut by the Fed, $BTC surged briefly then plunged, with investor liquidations exceeding $300 million within 24 hours. Now that the rate cut window is closed again, funds across the board will need to readjust their positions. The interest rate policy's role as a market indicator should not be underestimated; the upcoming market rhythm will likely dance to every statement from the Federal Reserve.