BTC on the 1-hour timeframe shows clear signs of weakness. The price has been consistently pressed below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands around 87,772, and has failed to break through effectively — this is no coincidence. From the candlestick performance, the recent decline from 87,975 straight down to 87,752 closing indicates that the bears have launched a full-scale attack, while the bulls' rebound strength is clearly insufficient.

The warning signals from the technical analysis are already quite evident. The MACD indicator's green histogram is still expanding, the DIF line remains below the DEA line, and the momentum clearly points downward. Currently around 86,973, not far from the lower band at 86,600. If this support level is effectively broken, the next target is very likely to be around 85,500.

What is even more worth noting is the change in on-chain data. In the past 24 hours, a large amount of BTC has flowed from long-term holders' wallets to exchanges. What does this phenomenon usually indicate? Selling pressure is accumulating. Meanwhile, the outflow from miner wallets is also increasing, suggesting some miners are cashing out under pressure. The combination of these two signals makes the market's seller intent quite clear.

From a macro perspective, the uncertainty in the global regulatory environment always exists, and any policy-related movement could become a trigger that crushes market confidence. Market sentiment has also gradually shifted from greed to fear. Technical analysis, on-chain data, and market psychology are forming a triangular resonance, all pointing toward downside potential.

In this context, any rebound should be approached with caution. Now is not the time to chase longs. Investors with positions can consider using rebounds to reduce holdings or stay on the sidelines until a confirmed bottom structure appears. The real opportunity often arises when panic is fully released, on-chain selling pressure is exhausted, and clear bottom signals emerge. Only then will it be a more advantageous entry point.