#宏观经济对加密市场影响 Bitcoin repeatedly oscillates within a vulnerable range. This week's on-chain data confirms my previous judgment — the market is in a phase of gradually accumulating time pressure.

The core issue is clear: unrealized losses have risen to 4.4%, realized losses have reached $555 million/day (the highest since the FTX collapse), long-term holders are taking profits at high levels, and high-level buyers are capitulating and selling. These two forces jointly suppress the rebound. But it’s worth noting that despite such enormous selling pressure, prices remain stable above the true market mean ($81,300), indicating sustained demand is absorbing these sell orders.

Looking deeper into the chain: the three-day average net inflow of ETFs remains negative, spot liquidity is at a 30-day low, open interest in futures shows no signs of rebuilding, and funding rates remain neutral to slightly negative — this is a typical signal of market participation collapse.

The options market warrants attention. Short-term implied volatility has jumped about 10 basis points, traders are buying volatility rather than selling, and the downward skew has risen to 11%, clearly reflecting the market’s preparation for volatility ahead of the FOMC meeting, with a noticeable downward bias.

In the short term, the key question is whether sellers are truly showing signs of exhaustion. If so, the 0.75 cost basis percentile ($95,000) might be retested. But in this window before the FOMC meeting, I lean toward believing that the defensive stance will continue to dominate — this is not a lack of confidence, but a rational pricing of macro catalysts.