On the contrary, I am more certain of one thing: 99% of retail investors are about to give away their money again. To be blunt: In the past three months, as soon as Yili Hua started to show off high-profile, short ETH was basically the safest strategy. But just look at the community—you’ll see— As soon as this news broke, many people went all-in long on ETH. Why? Because they only saw four words: 👉 “Institutions Increasing Holdings” But I checked @EmberCN ’s data, and the truth is not romantic at all. 📉 Trend Research’s real situation:
Started building positions in ETH at around $3,400 in early November
Bought a total of 580,000 ETH
Total cost approximately $1.72 billion
Average cost: $3,208
Now, how much is ETH? 👉 $2,940 In other words: The paper loss is already $141 million. Even more brutal— They also borrowed 887 million USDT from Aave, Close to 2x leverage. Seeing this, many retail investors become even more excited: “Institutions dare to hold, what am I afraid of?” But the problem is 👇 ① Institutions can have unrealized losses, retail investors cannot be liquidated Trend Research manages over $10 billion USD+ This ETH position accounts for only about 17%. 👉 Even if ETH drops another 50% Their overall loss is only 8.5%. What about you? What percentage of your position is this? If it gets liquidated, can you still survive? ② Institutions can wait, retail investors cannot They:
Build positions gradually over the past 2 months
Never go all-in at once
Have time, patience, and bullets
Retail investors:
See a tweet
Go all-in at $2,940
The next day, it drops to $2,800
In the group, people start asking: “Is it going to fall further? Should I cut?”
Institutions wait for the cycle, Retail investors wait for tomorrow. ③ Increasing holdings ≠ bottom signal History has taught you many times:
In 2021, 519 Institutions called for increasing BTC holdings 👉 BTC dropped from $29,000 to $17,600
In 2022, Luna Do Kwon announced high-profile increase in BTC holdings 👉 Luna went to zero, BTC dropped to $15,500
Many times, Increasing holdings is not bottom-fishing, It’s narrative, marketing, and liquidity seeking. So what should retail investors do? I’ll give you three very practical suggestions 👇 1️⃣ First ask yourself 3 questions
Is this all my savings?
Can I hold if it drops another 30%?
Can I wait 3–6 months?
If any answer is negative, then don’t move. 2️⃣ Build gradually, not all at once For example, if you want to buy ETH with 100,000:
30% at current price
Buy another 30% if it drops 10%
Buy the remaining 40% if it drops another 10%
At least, You are using “institutional methods”, Not “retail emotional trading.” 3️⃣ Set stop-loss orders For example, buy at $2,940: 👉 Exit unconditionally if it drops 15% (about $2,500) It’s not cowardice, It’s admitting you were wrong, Protecting your principal, waiting for real opportunities. One last message for you: Institutional increasing holdings is their game; Following along might just be their liquidity. See this clearly, And you are already more calm than 90% of the market.
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#易理华 Increase holdings by 1 billion USD $ETH ,
On the contrary, I am more certain of one thing:
99% of retail investors are about to give away their money again.
To be blunt:
In the past three months, as soon as Yili Hua started to show off high-profile, short ETH was basically the safest strategy.
But just look at the community—you’ll see—
As soon as this news broke, many people went all-in long on ETH.
Why?
Because they only saw four words:
👉 “Institutions Increasing Holdings”
But I checked
@EmberCN
’s data, and the truth is not romantic at all.
📉 Trend Research’s real situation:
Started building positions in ETH at around $3,400 in early November
Bought a total of 580,000 ETH
Total cost approximately $1.72 billion
Average cost: $3,208
Now, how much is ETH?
👉 $2,940
In other words:
The paper loss is already $141 million.
Even more brutal—
They also borrowed 887 million USDT from Aave,
Close to 2x leverage.
Seeing this, many retail investors become even more excited:
“Institutions dare to hold, what am I afraid of?”
But the problem is 👇
① Institutions can have unrealized losses, retail investors cannot be liquidated
Trend Research manages over $10 billion USD+
This ETH position accounts for only about 17%.
👉 Even if ETH drops another 50%
Their overall loss is only 8.5%.
What about you?
What percentage of your position is this?
If it gets liquidated, can you still survive?
② Institutions can wait, retail investors cannot
They:
Build positions gradually over the past 2 months
Never go all-in at once
Have time, patience, and bullets
Retail investors:
See a tweet
Go all-in at $2,940
The next day, it drops to $2,800
In the group, people start asking:
“Is it going to fall further? Should I cut?”
Institutions wait for the cycle,
Retail investors wait for tomorrow.
③ Increasing holdings ≠ bottom signal
History has taught you many times:
In 2021, 519
Institutions called for increasing BTC holdings
👉 BTC dropped from $29,000 to $17,600
In 2022, Luna
Do Kwon announced high-profile increase in BTC holdings
👉 Luna went to zero, BTC dropped to $15,500
Many times,
Increasing holdings is not bottom-fishing,
It’s narrative, marketing, and liquidity seeking.
So what should retail investors do?
I’ll give you three very practical suggestions 👇
1️⃣ First ask yourself 3 questions
Is this all my savings?
Can I hold if it drops another 30%?
Can I wait 3–6 months?
If any answer is negative,
then don’t move.
2️⃣ Build gradually, not all at once
For example, if you want to buy ETH with 100,000:
30% at current price
Buy another 30% if it drops 10%
Buy the remaining 40% if it drops another 10%
At least,
You are using “institutional methods”,
Not “retail emotional trading.”
3️⃣ Set stop-loss orders
For example, buy at $2,940:
👉 Exit unconditionally if it drops 15% (about $2,500)
It’s not cowardice,
It’s admitting you were wrong,
Protecting your principal, waiting for real opportunities.
One last message for you:
Institutional increasing holdings is their game;
Following along might just be their liquidity.
See this clearly,
And you are already more calm than 90% of the market.